Group I

France won the 2018 World Cup. They reached the final in 2022, losing to Argentina on penalties after one of the most dramatic final hours in tournament history. They are, by any reasonable measure, one of the two or three best teams in the world. They open their 2026 campaign in Group I, and the only real question is whether anyone can beat them here.

France: The Benchmark

Kylian Mbappe leading a French attack is one of the most frightening propositions in world football. He is the best player in the world, possibly of his generation, and he plays for the team with arguably the deepest squad in the tournament. Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembele, Aurelien Tchouameni — layers of quality behind the headline name. The French defence has been rebuilt since 2018 and the balance of the side is better for it.

Their opener against Senegal in New York on June 16th is the key test. France beat Senegal at the 2002 World Cup in a politically charged match that still resonates in West Africa. Twenty-four years later, Senegal have won AFCON. The context is richer now.

Senegal: Lions of Teranga with a Point to Prove

Senegal won the Africa Cup of Nations in 2022. Sadio Mane is the talisman, though his powers have evolved from the explosive Premier League phase to something more central and composed. Edouard Mendy is world-class in goal. This is a technically complete African side, not a physical-and-pace caricature. They will give France a serious match and are legitimate contenders for second place.

Norway vs Senegal on June 22nd in New York is the group’s defining second fixture — the match that settles who is genuinely competing with France for first.

Norway: Haaland’s World Cup Debut

Erling Haaland has never played at a World Cup. Norway failed to qualify for 2022. He is arguably the best striker in the world on current form and he arrives here hungry to prove that club dominance translates to international football. The supporting cast is better than it looks — Martin Odegaard orchestrates, Alexander Isak provides an alternative striker option, and the team has improved defensively.

Norway are not going to dominate possession against France, but they don’t need to. Haaland running in behind on the counter is a plan that works.

The Intercontinental Playoff Team

A playoff winner rounds out the group and will face France first. Their chances of advancing are slim, but World Cups have been built on stranger things than a playoff team beating Norway in a must-win final game.

Must-watch match: France vs Senegal, June 16th, MetLife Stadium. Historical weight, current quality, genuine tension.

Bold prediction: France win the group with three wins, rotating in the third match. Senegal advance in second after beating Norway. Norway go home with Haaland having scored three goals in a group they don’t progress from, which will define his career narrative for better or worse.