Group D

The United States has hosted a World Cup before — 1994, when they surprised everyone by reaching the round of 16 and drew crowds that changed how American broadcasters thought about the sport. That was 32 years ago. An entire generation of American players grew up watching those games on VHS. Now the national team is supposed to actually compete for a title, not just show up gratefully. Group D is where it starts.

USA: The Host with Something to Prove

The American soccer project has been building since the early 1990s. It produced Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey. It collapsed at the 2018 World Cup when they failed to qualify entirely. It rebuilt. Now there is genuine quality — Christian Pulisic in the Premier League, Yunus Musah and Weston McKennie in Europe’s top leagues, Tyler Adams bringing experience and leadership. The 2022 group stage showed they can compete. The question is whether they can do it consistently for seven matches.

The USA opens against Paraguay in Los Angeles at 6pm Pacific. The crowd will be overwhelming. The expectation will be suffocating. That is fine. That is what they signed up for.

Australia: The Socceroos Still Matter

Australia’s 2022 run to the round of 16 reinvigorated their football. Harry Souttar and Mat Ryan showed they have Premier League quality in the spine. Sam Kerr runs women’s football for them, but the men’s game found its groove in Qatar and will want to extend that. The Socceroos are not favourites in this group, but they are not filler either. Their opener against the UEFA playoff winner in Vancouver is winnable.

The timezone reality: Australia vs any opponent in this group kicks off in the North American afternoon, which means the middle of the night in Sydney and Melbourne. The Australian diaspora in Vancouver is substantial enough to make BC Place feel uncomfortable for opponents.

Paraguay: The Most Underrated Team Here

Paraguay reached the quarter-finals in 2010. They have a physical, organised style of play that makes life miserable for technically superior opponents. They are not beautiful to watch, but they win games they shouldn’t. Their opener against the USA in Los Angeles will be the tightest match of the first round that people overlook.

The UEFA Path C Wildcard

A playoff team in a group with the host nation and two competitive sides. History says they go home after three games. History is usually right.

Must-watch match: USA vs Paraguay, June 12th, Los Angeles. The host nation’s opening statement, in a ground that holds 70,000, against a team that will want to ruin the party.

Bold prediction: USA top the group with maximum points. Australia sneak through in second. Paraguay push them to the last day and go out narrowly. The playoff team loses all three.